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24 July 2025

Gavin Newsom, The Next President Of The US? "America's At Breaking Point & Trump's Playing Dangerous Games!"

4Frameworks
13Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take1:10:00

Newsom: 'They're Not Screwing Around' on Trump 2028

Asked whether Trump would try to remain in power, Newsom says not on balance of probability because of age, but warns that people close to Trump sent him a 'Trump 2028' hat and that Trump floated the idea of three or four terms in the Oval Office. He calls the moment 'darkness' and says American checks and balances are 'on life support', while acknowledging the limits of these claims.

  • People close to Trump sent Newsom a hat saying 'Trump 2028', he says
  • Newsom says Trump mused in the Oval Office about three or four terms
  • He cites a Texas redistricting call as evidence of rigging the midterms
  • He rates the probability of Trump staying as low, citing 'time of life'
  • He calls American checks and balances 'on life support'

I think he's the guy that tried to wreck this country, try to light our democracy on fire.

Gavin Newsom · 1:11:00

On the balance probability, no... But I can see a scenario

Gavin Newsom · 1:14:00
#trump#democracy#term limits#2028
Hot Take1:45:00

Newsom on the Epstein Files: 'They Lied'

Asked about promised Epstein file releases, Newsom says 'they lied—either then or now'. He argues Attorney General Pam Bondi would not have acted without Trump's direction, asserts as a fact that Trump and Epstein were 'close', and leaves open whether the file exists at all or whether something more insidious is hidden. He acknowledges his own cynicism about why Elon Musk's questions disappeared, framing the matter as a political open question rather than a verified account.

  • Newsom says the Trump administration lied about releasing Epstein files
  • He argues Bondi would not act without Trump's direction
  • He asserts as a fact that Trump and Epstein were 'close'
  • He leaves open whether the file exists at all

They lied. They they lied to you then or they lying to you now. Period. Someone lied about this.

Gavin Newsom · 1:45:00

Epste and Trump were close... They were close. That's a fact.

Gavin Newsom · 1:46:30
#epstein#trump#pam bondi#transparency

Explainer· 3

Explainer55:30

Why Newsom Says the Democratic Party Brand Is 'Toxic' at 27 Percent

Newsom says the Democratic Party's poll standing fell to roughly 27 percent after the 2024 election, which he calls a 'toxic' brand. He lists theories he rejects—pundits asserting one factor each, such as inflation, incumbency, 'woke', or Joe Rogan—and says he started his podcast to learn from opponents such as Charlie Kirk, whom he credits with a deliberate, date-driven youth turnout strategy. The figure is Newsom's claim in the transcript.

  • Newsom cites roughly 27 percent as the Democratic Party's recent poll standing
  • He rejects single-cause explanations pundits gave after the loss
  • He credits Charlie Kirk with a deliberate, date-driven youth turnout strategy
  • He argues the party should 'seek first to understand' why it lost

my party is at 27% in polls just a few months ago. I mean, it's a toxic party in terms of its brand.

Gavin Newsom · 55:30

Seek first to understand before you're understood.

Gavin Newsom · 56:00
#democratic party#polls#charlie kirk#2024 election
Explainer50:00

Newsom Calls the State of Boys and Men 'Code Red' in America

Newsom calls the state of boys and men 'code red', citing suicide rates, deaths of despair, and falling educational attainment, and pointing to his wife's 2015 documentary 'The Mask You Live In'. He credits Scott Galloway and Richard Reeves for work in this area, criticizes his own party for being timid on the issue, and says he has worked on an executive order focused on recruiting more male elementary teachers and broadening caregiving. The figures referenced are framed by Newsom, not independently verified in the episode.

  • Newsom labels the crisis of boys and men 'code red'
  • He cites his wife's 2015 documentary on masculine socialization
  • He credits Richard Reeves and Scott Galloway for work in this area
  • He says an executive order addressing the issue is in preparation
  • He criticizes the Democratic Party as 'timid' on the issue

this is code red in this country around the world increasingly

Gavin Newsom · 50:30

I think there was just deep lack of empathy.

Gavin Newsom · 53:00
#boys and men#education#suicide#gender politics
Explainer1:17:00

Newsom's Claim: 50 of 52 Million Jobs Created Under Democrats

Newsom states that since the end of the Cold War in 1989 through last year, the U.S. created 52 million jobs, across three Democratic and three Republican administrations. He says 50 of the 52 million were created under Democratic administrations and only 1.9 million under Republican ones, arguing the last three Republican presidents each oversaw a recession. The figures are Newsom's claims in the transcript, not independently verified here.

  • Newsom cites 52 million jobs created since the end of the Cold War
  • He attributes 50 million of those to Democratic administrations
  • He says 1.9 million were created under Republican administrations
  • He contrasts public perception with the figures he cites

50 of the 52 million were created under Democratic administrations.

Gavin Newsom · 1:17:30
#job growth#democratic party#republican party#economy

Story· 6

Story06:00

Newsom on His Single Mother, Two Jobs, and the Grit He Inherited

Newsom describes his mother as a 19-year-old who became pregnant with him, then raised two kids alone after his father left. She worked two or three jobs, moved out of her own bedroom to rent it, and the struggle, including a grandfather who took his life after World War II, formed the work ethic Newsom says he inherited. The account is his recollection, not a verified biography.

  • His mother came from no wealth and raised two kids alone
  • She moved out of her own bedroom to rent it for income
  • Newsom's father left but not in disgrace, in his telling
  • He traces his grit and his anxiety to her example

She ran out of her own bedroom. Sacrificed everything for two kids.

Gavin Newsom · 00:30

everything that finds the best of me, grit, hard work is reflected in her

Gavin Newsom · 01:00
#childhood#single mother#work ethic#upbringing
Story14:30

How Trump's 'Newskum' Insult Goes Back to a Childhood Bully

Newsom recounts being called 'Newskum' by a bully on Baltimore Street in Marin County as a child, a taunt Donald Trump later revived as 'Gavin Newskum'. He says he told Trump the line was not particularly original, and Trump moved on to another topic, linking a current political nickname to a boyhood one.

  • The 'Gavin Newskum' nickname originated with a childhood bully on Baltimore Street
  • Newsom told Trump the line was not particularly original
  • Trump moved on to another topic at Newsom's pushback
  • Newsom traces the boyhood bullying partly to a distinctive haircut

It's not, Mr. President, it's not particularly original.

Gavin Newsom · 14:30
#bullying#nicknames#childhood#trump
Story28:00

How Mayor Newsom Opened City Hall to Marry 4,036 Same-Sex Couples

Newly elected in 2004, Newsom directed San Francisco city hall to begin marrying same-sex couples, opening the doors an hour before courts could issue a restraining order. He says 4,036 couples from 46 states and eight countries came during what became known as the Winter of Love, and that his own party was furious, having advised him to do 'what you think is right' only as a slogan.

  • Newsom says a George W. Bush State of the Union line prompted the decision
  • He opened city hall at 8 a.m. ahead of a possible court order
  • He married Phyllis Lyon and Del Martin, together nearly 50 years
  • The Democratic Party, he says, was almost universally opposed at the time

We married Phyllis Lyon and Del Martin. And they've been together almost 50 years.

Gavin Newsom · 29:30

4,036 couples from 46 states in eight countries came to San Francisco

Gavin Newsom · 30:30
#same-sex marriage#civil rights#san francisco#2004
Story34:00

The Voicemail About 'Next Thursday I Won't Be Around'

Newsom describes his mother's voice message asking him to come to her last day before an assisted suicide she undertook because of metastatic breast cancer pain. He says she and his sister looked through old photos, she took pills, and he held her hand as she died. He notes it was not then legal in California, says he later helped change the law, and explicitly declines to recommend anyone follow the same path.

  • Newsom's mother left a voicemail saying next Thursday would be her last day
  • She chose assisted suicide because of metastatic breast cancer pain, in his telling
  • Newsom held her hand as she died and his sister ran out
  • At the time the procedure was not legal in California

Hi honey, it's your mother. I know you haven't seen me in a while, but next Thursday I won't be around

Gavin Newsom · 34:30

don't forget me God is my witness don't forget me

Gavin Newsom · 37:30
#mother#assisted suicide#breast cancer#grief
Story1:28:00

Inside the Biden Debate Night Panic and the Push to Replace Him

Newsom, who served as Biden's chief surrogate on debate night in 2024, says he stood up as Biden walked on stage and told staff 'something's off'. He describes a phone tree that lit up that night, meetings at the White House where Democratic governors pressed Biden, and Biden's belief that only he could beat Trump. Newsom says he backed Biden publicly until the end, and describes feeling a little angry he did not even get a heads-up call when Biden withdrew, learning from a voicemail and endorsing Kamala Harris within hours.

  • Newsom was Biden's chief surrogate on the night of the 2024 debate
  • He says he knew 'something's off' the moment Biden walked on stage
  • He describes a phone tree of panic and meetings pressing Biden at the White House
  • Newsom says he endorsed Harris within hours of Biden's withdrawal
  • He says he felt 'a little angry' not to get a heads-up call

I was a little angry I didn't get heads up

Gavin Newsom · 1:32:00

The coin of the realm in politics is loyalty. Period. Full stop.

Gavin Newsom · 1:31:30
#biden#democratic primary#2024 election#kamala harris
Story1:49:00

The Peregrine Falcon That Appeared After Newsom's Father Died

Asked in the closing tradition whether he has received 'a sign from beyond', Newsom describes visiting his late father's San Francisco home after his death and seeing a peregrine falcon on the balcony. He says his father's passion was peregrine falconry and that he had never seen a peregrine in San Francisco before or since. His sister was with him. He frames the moment as his answer.

  • Newsom's father died in his San Francisco home, in his telling
  • A peregrine falcon appeared on the balcony shortly after the death
  • Newsom says his father was passionate about peregrine falconry
  • He says it was his first peregrine sighting in many years in San Francisco

Can't make this up.

Gavin Newsom · 1:49:30

True story. There's my answer.

Gavin Newsom · 1:49:30
#grief#father#peregrine falcon#spirituality

Q&A· 2

Q&A1:07:00

The Cordial Trump Call, Then the National Guard Eight Hours Later

Newsom says his private conversations with Trump are 'unbelievably cordial', including a call the night before Trump federalized the National Guard in Los Angeles in which Trump told him to call any time. Hours later, Newsom says, Trump publicly claimed he had 'read Newsom the riot act', a claim Newsom says did not happen, and then federalized the Guard. He describes the pattern as a 'show' that has become more dangerous.

  • Newsom says private calls with Trump conflict with Trump's public attacks
  • He describes a friendly call the night before the L.A. National Guard federalization
  • He says Trump lied the next morning about the call's content
  • He frames the pattern as a 'show' that has become derivative and more dangerous

Unbelievably cordial. Unbelievably it drives people crazy when I say this

Gavin Newsom · 1:07:00

You need anything, call me. You need anything, call me.

Gavin Newsom · 1:07:30
#trump#national guard#political strategy#los angeles
Q&A1:42:00

Newsom Says California Is Making Real Progress on Homelessness

Asked whether California's homelessness is fixable, Newsom says 'yes, by definition' and cites a 17.5 percent decline over two years in Los Angeles's unsheltered count, which he attributes to the mayor. He says shelters solve sleep and supportive services solve homelessness, and announces a build-out of 26,000 new behavioral health housing units in California. The figures are presented as his state's claims, not independently verified.

  • Newsom says homelessness is 'fixable, by definition'
  • He cites a 17.5% Los Angeles unsheltered decline over two years
  • He distinguishes sleep solutions from broader supportive services
  • He claims 26,000 new behavioral health units in progress

shelters solve sleep housing and supportive services solve homelessness

Gavin Newsom · 1:43:00

Clean them up. It's the job of a mayor.

Gavin Newsom · 1:42:30
#homelessness#california#mental health#housing