ABZ Planning
Iterate Plan A, keep many Plan Bs, and preserve a survivable Plan Z
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 99%
ABZ Planning replaces the usual Plan A and single Plan B with an adaptive portfolio. Plan A is the current best route. Numerous small Plan Bs are nearby experiments or adjustments that preserve motion when part of the plan fails. A major pivot becomes appropriate when repeated iteration leaves the new Plan A materially worse than the original opportunity. Plan Z is the survivable fallback, including quitting when no credible route remains. Hoffman emphasizes measurement: ask whether each move increases the probability of success, preserves maneuverability, and still points toward the larger goal. The method supports smart risk rather than either rigid persistence or reflexive abandonment.
Origin
Hoffman identifies ABZ Planning as a framework from The Startup of You and explains it on The Diary of a CEO.
Core principles
- 01A plan should create maneuverability rather than false certainty
- 02Small Plan B experiments come before a major pivot
- 03Progress is measured by changing probability, not confidence alone
- 04Plan Z protects survival when the current path no longer works
How to run it
- 1
Set Plan A
Describe the current best route and the outcomes that would show it is working.
Pro tip Make the next milestone observable.
Watch out Do not treat Plan A as guaranteed.
- 2
Create micro Plan Bs
Prepare several adjacent experiments that can address specific weaknesses without abandoning the whole direction.
Pro tip Change one important assumption at a time where practical.
- 3
Measure the trajectory
Ask whether the latest evidence raises or lowers the chance of reaching the intended outcome.
Pro tip Compare the revised opportunity with the original Plan A.
Watch out Activity alone is not evidence of improving odds.
- 4
Make the major pivot
Consider a larger change when iteration leaves the current plan distinctly worse than where you began.
Watch out Do not pivot solely because the first attempt was uncomfortable.
- 5
Use Plan Z
Fall back to the option that preserves your ability to continue, including selling or quitting when necessary.
Pro tip Define Plan Z before pressure removes your choices.
In the wild
Hoffman notes that PayPal began with encryption on cell phones rather than its eventual payments business. The example shows why a startup should expect significant change and preserve alternatives instead of equating commitment with one immutable implementation.
→ A major pivot replaced an inferior path while preserving the team and entrepreneurial direction.
Common mistakes
Keeping only one backup
Hoffman advocates many micro Plan Bs because uncertainty rarely presents one predictable failure mode.
Going all-in without a floor
A survivable Plan Z preserves maneuverability instead of making every setback fatal.
Is it for you?
Best for
Founders and professionals making consequential moves under uncertain conditions.
Not ideal for
Emergencies that require immediate action rather than iterative experimentation.
From the transcript
“You have a plan and then you have a lot of micro Plan Bs.”
“I have plans B. I have a Plan Z.”
From the episode
Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn Founder: It’s Time To Quit Your Job When You Feel This! Selling LinkedIn For $26 Billion Taught Me This About Life! Trump Is Going To Punish Me!