Back-Yourself Learning Loop
Take the shot, study surprising failure, and return with stronger judgement
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 94%
Morgan links confidence with a willingness to take risks, using Kevin Pietersen's phrase “back yourself” and Wayne Gretzky's observation that an untaken shot always misses. He then adds a learning mechanism: Mars reportedly paid special attention to the unusual chocolate bars that failed because unexpected failure challenged assumptions that repeated success left untouched. The reusable loop is to choose a bounded risk, act with conviction, inspect the outcome without turning it into a verdict on personal worth, and isolate the surprising lesson. That lesson should alter the next attempt. The model is not a claim that confidence guarantees success. Its value comes from combining action with evidence so that a missed shot improves later judgement rather than merely producing bravado.
Origin
Morgan connects lessons he attributes to cricketer Kevin Pietersen, ice-hockey player Wayne Gretzky, and the confectioner Mars while explaining how confidence, risk, and failure have shaped his career.
Core principles
- 01Unattempted opportunities cannot produce a result
- 02Self-belief makes calculated action possible
- 03Unexpected failure can reveal more than routine success
- 04Learning requires examining what the failure exposed
- 05Enthusiasm can survive a disappointing outcome
How to run it
- 1
Name the shot
Define the opportunity and the decision that would move it from speculation into action. State what success and failure would look like.
Pro tip Choose a test that can teach you something even if it fails.
Watch out Do not confuse visibility or excitement with a worthwhile opportunity.
- 2
Bound the downside
Identify the money, time, reputation, and safety at risk, then reduce the exposure to a level you can responsibly accept.
Pro tip Prefer a reversible first attempt.
Watch out Self-belief does not remove legal, ethical, or safety constraints.
- 3
Back your judgement
Once the risk is acceptable, act decisively rather than waiting for certainty that cannot arrive without a test.
Pro tip Write down your assumptions before seeing the outcome.
- 4
Inspect the surprise
Compare the result with your assumptions and focus on what failed unexpectedly. Distinguish bad luck from a flaw in the decision or execution.
Pro tip Ask what this result taught you that routine success would not have shown.
Watch out A single failure does not prove every assumption wrong.
- 5
Return with a change
Carry the specific lesson into the next attempt while preserving enthusiasm for the larger goal when it remains justified.
Pro tip Name the one consequential change before trying again.
Watch out Repeating the same attempt without a new lesson is not a learning loop.
In the wild
Morgan says Mars expected most new chocolate bars to work because they were extensively tested. According to his account, the company celebrated an occasional unexpected failure because it revealed more than the routine successes did.
→ A surprising miss becomes evidence for improving assumptions and future product decisions.
Common mistakes
Treating confidence as proof
Confidence can support action, but the result still has to test the assumptions behind the decision.
Taking an unbounded risk
The transcript praises risk-taking, not preventable harm; a useful experiment keeps failure survivable.
Celebrating without learning
Failure is valuable only when the unexpected result changes a later decision or attempt.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for reversible career, creative, and business decisions where action can generate useful evidence.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for reckless, irreversible, illegal, or safety-critical risks where failure would cause unacceptable harm.
From the transcript
“you'll miss a hundred percent of the shots you don't take”
“they reckon they learn more from the failure than they did from the endless success”
From the episode
Piers Morgan: Dealing With Repeat Failure, Death Threats & Regrets