Baseline Delta Check
Compare behavior with a personal baseline instead of trusting generic tells
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 97%
The Baseline Delta Check replaces generic lie-detection tells with person-specific comparison. First spend enough low-pressure time with someone to observe their normal speech, movement, energy, and interaction style. Account for environmental changes that can alter behavior without deception. Then introduce the relevant topic or pressure and look for a delta from that person's baseline. Bustamante calls the required observation period 'time on target.' He rejects eye direction and microexpressions as standalone proof and says skilled liars may not show generic tells at all. A delta is therefore a reason to investigate, not a verdict. Follow-up questions, context, and corroborating information are still needed before deciding that a statement is unreliable.
Origin
Bustamante presents baseline comparison and 'time on target' as the practical alternative to social-media claims about eye movements and microexpressions.
Core principles
- 01Eye direction alone does not establish deception
- 02Microexpressions alone do not establish deception
- 03Normal behavior differs by person and environment
- 04A meaningful signal is a change from that person's baseline
- 05A delta can justify further inquiry but does not prove a lie
How to run it
- 1
Establish normal
Observe how the person normally speaks, moves, makes eye contact, and manages energy in a low-pressure context. Record patterns rather than one isolated gesture.
Pro tip Use more than one interaction when possible.
Watch out Without a baseline, unusual-looking behavior may simply be normal for that person.
- 2
Control for context
Notice what changed in the environment, audience, role, or stakes. A camera, interview, bright light, fatigue, or unfamiliar setting can alter behavior without indicating deceit.
- 3
Apply the relevant question
Raise the topic you need to assess and observe the response. Avoid relying on eye direction, blinking, or another single cue.
Watch out Do not treat nervousness as proof of lying.
- 4
Measure the delta
Compare the response with the person's baseline and identify specific changes. Look for a cluster or sustained shift rather than a fleeting movement.
- 5
Investigate, do not convict
Use the delta to guide calm follow-up questions and seek corroborating evidence. Keep alternative explanations open until additional information supports a conclusion.
Pro tip Describe the observed change without labeling the person a liar.
In the wild
Bustamante says Bartlett was more conversational before filming and adopted an interviewer role when the cameras came on. The change does not mean one version was truthful and the other deceptive; the environment changed. Only someone who observed both contexts would possess that baseline information.
→ A visible behavioral change is explained by context rather than mislabeled as a lie.
Common mistakes
Reading eye direction as proof
Bustamante says many biological and environmental factors can affect where someone looks, making the inference unreliable.
Confusing discomfort with deceit
Pressure can produce movement or hesitation even when a person is telling the truth.
Is it for you?
Best for
People who have enough time and prior interaction to compare behavior across low- and higher-pressure contexts.
Not ideal for
One-off encounters where no personal baseline exists or decisions requiring forensic evidence.
From the transcript
“you don't know if someone is lying to you until you have had enough time with the person to establish what's known as a baseline.”
“You need time on target so that you can understand the delta”
From the episode
CIA Spy: "Leave The USA Before 2030!", "Why You Shouldn't Trust Your Gut!", "I Held The Nuclear Codes Around My Neck" - Andrew Bustamante