Bell Curve Versus Power Law Opportunities
Most people are trapped inside a bell curve where every opportunity is incremental — leverage is the only way out.
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 93%
Priestley's tool for evaluating opportunities with little information is a binary classification. Bell curve opportunities are those where everything fits within a distribution and it is very unlikely anything falls outside it. Power law opportunities are those where, because of leverage, the sky is the limit. His worked contrast is medicine: every NHS doctor earns roughly the same, new doctors earn about this, twenty-year veterans earn about that, and there are no doctors making a million a month. Then a particular NHS doctor dropped out to become a YouTuber — Ali Abdaal — and discovered a distribution in which some people are earning a million a month. The practical framing is that most people listening are trapped inside a bell curve where every available opportunity only moves them incrementally from one side to the other, and there is no massive upside. The remedy is to spend a little time talking to people about exponential opportunities, and the tell for an exponential opportunity is always leverage: fame, capital, large databases, huge existing distribution networks, a partnership with someone far further along, or simply being in business rather than in a job.
Origin
Bartlett asks how Priestley quantifies the value of an opportunity when he has very little information about it. Priestley's answer starts from leverage — we live in a world of leverage — and resolves into the two-type classification, which he then applies to concrete invitations he receives.
Core principles
- 01Two types only: bell curve and power law.
- 02Leverage is what creates the exponential shift.
- 03Most people are trapped in a bell curve and every opportunity within it is incremental.
- 04The courage to move out of the bell curve is the actual constraint.
- 0570% of 8 billion people now have fast internet, so the addressable pool is effectively unbounded.
How to run it
- 1
Classify the opportunity before valuing it
Ask whether this is a bell curve or a power law. Priestley applies it live: speaking on a stage is absolutely a power law move; access to a billionaire's capital and networks is exponential; a meeting about some incremental thing is a bell curve and will not break him out.
Pro tip The classification is faster and more reliable than trying to estimate a specific value.
Watch out He notes there are definitely two types of billionaires — the access only counts if they are the right sort of person.
- 2
Look for the leverage that would create the exponent
Exponential opportunities always involve leverage. Priestley's list: fame, capital, large databases, huge existing distribution networks, a partnership with someone far further along than you, or being in business rather than in a job.
Pro tip If you cannot name the leverage, it is a bell curve opportunity regardless of how appealing it sounds.
Watch out Effort is not leverage — this is what keeps hard workers inside the bell curve.
- 3
Spend deliberate time on exponential conversations
If you are inside a bell curve, Priestley's prescription is to spend a little time talking to people about exponential opportunities, since none will appear inside the distribution you currently occupy.
Pro tip This is a search behaviour, not a decision — you cannot choose a power law option that is not in front of you.
Watch out Every opportunity that reaches you inside a bell curve will itself be a bell curve opportunity.
- 4
Create space so opportunities can land
Priestley stopped goal setting because his brand now brings opportunities he cannot predict — this podcast appearance being his example. Goal setting is direct power and influence; a brand is indirect power, what you attract.
Pro tip At the early stage goal setting is essential for directing energy. Later, you have to slow down to speed up.
Watch out He names filling his diary so full that he missed some of the biggest opportunities around him as one of his biggest mistakes, and estimates it has cost him tens of millions.
In the wild
Every NHS doctor sits inside a tight distribution — new doctors earn about this, twenty-year veterans about that, and no outliers. One doctor dropped out to become a YouTuber and found a distribution where some people earn a million a month.
→ Priestley uses it as the cleanest available demonstration of stepping from a bell curve into a power law by changing the game rather than performing better within it.
Priestley had a full set of goals for 2024. Bartlett messaged him while he was skiing to invite him onto the show, and he said yes.
→ The appearance totally transformed his year — an opportunity his goals could not have contained, which is why he now optimises for space rather than for targets.
Common mistakes
Optimising performance inside a bell curve
Working harder inside a distribution only moves you from one side to the other. Priestley is explicit that there is no massive upside available inside the curve.
Filling the diary completely
Priestley calls this one of his biggest mistakes and puts the cost at tens of millions. Without gaps, opportunities never get onto your radar and the benefits of a strong brand go unrealised.
Continuing to goal set once the brand attracts
Goal setting is direct influence, useful early to direct your energy. Once a brand generates unpredictable inbound, rigid goals crowd out the opportunities that were the point of building the brand.
Is it for you?
Best for
Anyone with more invitations than time, and people who feel capped in a profession with a tight income distribution.
Not ideal for
People who genuinely value the stability a bell curve provides and are not seeking outlier outcomes.
From the transcript
“power law opportunities means that because of leverage the sky's the limit”
“most people are trapped inside a bell curve you're never going to get out of that bell curve”
“you have to slow down to speed up you have to create gaps where things can hit you”
From the episode
The Money Making Expert: The 7,11,4 Hack That Turns $1 Into $10K Per Month! This 90 Day Rule Will 10x Your Income! Daniel Priestley
Daniel Priestley