Decision-Process Quality Review
Judge decisions by how they were made, not by one outcome.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 98%
The guest separates the intrinsic quality of a decision from the outcome that follows it. Markets, competitors, luck, and other uncontrollable events can reward weak reasoning or punish a sound choice, so the result alone is an unreliable score. The method is to reconstruct what was known when the choice was made, examine how much weight went to evidence versus bias or opinion, and grade that process before considering the outcome. A favorable result should not protect a poor process from correction, while an unfavorable result should not automatically invalidate disciplined reasoning. Repeating this review makes the logic behind choices more consistent and gives the decision-maker more influence over future results without pretending to control uncertainty.
Origin
Extracted from The Diary of a CEO
Core principles
- 01A good decision can produce a bad outcome.
- 02A bad decision can benefit from luck.
- 03Outcomes are visible only after the decision is made.
- 04Consistent reasoning creates more control than outcome-based self-judgment.
How to run it
- 1
Capture the choice
Write down the decision, the objective, and the options before the result is known. Preserve the information actually available at that point.
Pro tip Add a short forecast so hindsight cannot silently rewrite what you expected.
Watch out Do not fill gaps later with information learned after the decision.
- 2
Audit the inputs
Separate evidence from assumptions, prejudice, bias, and opinion. Note which important facts were uncertain or unavailable.
Pro tip Ask what evidence would have changed the choice.
Watch out Confidence is not evidence.
- 3
Grade the process
Assess whether the reasoning used the available evidence coherently and matched the stakes. Do this before scoring the outcome.
Pro tip Use the same criteria across similar decisions to build consistency.
Watch out A profitable result can conceal a process that should not be repeated.
- 4
Learn from the result
Compare the outcome with the forecast and identify what was luck, what was controllable, and what new information was revealed. Update the process rather than merely praising or blaming the person.
Pro tip Preserve sound reasoning when the miss came from genuine uncertainty.
Watch out Do not use uncertainty as an excuse for a preventable process failure.
In the wild
The guest describes leadership teams that made weak decisions but received favorable outcomes because a market shifted or a competitor acted unexpectedly. Reviewing only the result led them to confuse luck with genius.
→ A process review exposes reasoning that needs correction before the same gamble is repeated.
Common mistakes
Scoring only the outcome
The result contains luck and information that were unavailable when the choice was made.
Rewriting the evidence
Hindsight can make uncertain information appear obvious and distort the process review.
Is it for you?
Best for
People making repeated decisions under uncertainty in business, sport, or personal performance.
Not ideal for
Routine choices with an obvious answer or emergencies where a lengthy review would delay necessary action.
From the transcript
“you can make a good decision and have a really bad outcome”
“it's wrong to measure our decisions by the outcomes”
“let's understand how we make decisions”
From the episode
Life Changing Lessons From 100 Of The World’s Greatest Minds