The Downward Opportunity Scan
Search below current customer demand for the weak signal incumbents ignore
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 95%
Steven Bartlett described a distinction he took from The Innovator's Dilemma. The upward opportunity improves the existing offer in ways current customers request and the organization already knows how to deliver. The downward opportunity initially looks worse: early cars were inferior to horses on familiar measures, and long-form podcasts did not resemble the thinner, larger television experience broadcasters expected viewers to want. Incumbents ignore these alternatives because their customers, supply chains, and rewards point upward. The scan therefore looks for a weak new format serving a different underlying need. The task is not to predict novelty for its own sake, but to identify a human demand that the current category's metrics fail to capture and test it separately.
Origin
Steven Bartlett said The Innovator's Dilemma changed his thinking and used horses versus early cars to explain sustaining and downward opportunities on The Diary of a CEO.
Core principles
- 01Current customers naturally request improvements to what already exists
- 02An emerging alternative may begin worse on familiar measures
- 03Incumbent incentives favor sustaining innovation
- 04Unmet human demand can matter more than stated product requests
How to run it
- 1
Map the Upward Path
Document what existing customers request and which familiar performance measures those requests improve.
Pro tip Include the incentives that make these requests easy to approve.
- 2
Find Inferior Alternatives
Look for emerging options that appear worse on established measures or appeal to a small, overlooked audience.
Watch out Inferiority alone is not evidence of disruption.
- 3
Name the Different Need
Identify the need the alternative serves that the incumbent product and its metrics miss.
Pro tip Frame the need in human terms rather than as a feature list.
- 4
Run a Separate Test
Test the alternative with the audience that experiences the unmet need, using measures appropriate to that need.
Pro tip Keep the experiment small enough to survive weak early economics.
Watch out Do not judge the test solely by the incumbent's current margin or scale.
- 5
Watch for a New Trajectory
Continue only if the alternative gains usefulness, adoption, or retention within its distinct market.
Watch out A compelling story without improving evidence remains speculation.
In the wild
Bartlett contrasted the obvious request for faster horses with an early car that was slower, unfamiliar, and unwanted by horse buyers. The existing business would favor the customer-backed improvement and overlook the new trajectory.
→ The example shows why current demand and capabilities can hide a category-changing alternative.
Carr and Bartlett argued that television firms focused on bigger, thinner screens while podcasts served a less explicit desire for long conversations and connection. This is their interpretation of the market shift, not a proven single cause.
→ A different format grew around a need the incumbent product framing did not prioritize.
Common mistakes
Calling Every Weak Product Disruptive
A downward opportunity needs evidence of a different valuable trajectory, not merely poor current performance.
Using Incumbent Metrics
The old category's measures can reject the experiment before its distinct value becomes visible.
Is it for you?
Best for
Teams in established categories where customer requests and internal incentives keep producing incremental improvements.
Not ideal for
It is not a reason to pursue every inferior novelty without evidence of a distinct underserved need.
From the transcript
“The incumbents always ignore the downward opportunity.”
“Their incentives are set up to pursue what we call the sustaining innovation.”
From the episode
Jimmy Carr: "I Was Laughing & Crying When He Died". Jimmy Opens Up About Being Cancelled & How Anxiety Is The Flip Side Of Creativity!