The Expectation Dial
Replace an automatic failure forecast with a credible possibility
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 96%
Smith describes anxiety as predicting failure and confidence as predicting success, then recommends turning the expectation toward optimism without lying to yourself. Instead of declaring “I will do well,” ask whether you can do well and retrieve relevant evidence: a previous conversation went acceptably, preparation is complete, or the feared outcome is not inevitable. When no strong evidence exists, replace “this will be the worst” with the equally uncertain “what if this goes well?” The dial creates enough possibility to act while preserving the right to be wrong. Smith and Bartlett also discuss research and placebo examples, but those claims are not needed for the practice and are not treated here as proof that positive thinking controls outcomes.
Origin
Extracted from The Diary of a CEO
Core principles
- 01An anxious forecast is a prediction rather than a settled outcome
- 02A useful reframe need not pretend certainty
- 03Questions can retrieve real evidence more credibly than declarations
- 04Optimism should permit the possibility of being wrong
How to run it
- 1
Catch the forecast
Write the exact outcome your mind is predicting. Label it as a forecast rather than a fact.
Pro tip Use the full sentence, including the feared consequence.
- 2
Ask, do not declare
Turn a forced affirmation into a question about what is possible. This avoids demanding belief in a statement that feels false.
Pro tip Ask “Can this go well?” before answering with evidence.
- 3
Retrieve relevant evidence
Recall preparation, previous attempts, transferable skills, and conditions that support a workable result. Keep the evidence specific to the task.
Pro tip Use evidence of coping as well as evidence of success.
Watch out Do not ignore contrary evidence or material risks.
- 4
Open the positive possibility
State a constructive outcome that remains plausible without claiming it is guaranteed. Let possibility replace the automatic default of failure.
Pro tip Try “What if this is better than I expect?”
- 5
Act and update
Proceed with the task, then compare the forecast with what actually happened. Add the result to the evidence available for the next attempt.
Pro tip Record surprises on both the positive and negative sides.
In the wild
Smith says that rather than merely telling himself he would perform well, he could ask whether he could do well and answer that the previous appearance had gone acceptably and reached many listeners.
→ The expectation rests on retrieved evidence rather than an unbelievable declaration.
Before dates, Smith says his inner voice could ask whether this might be the worst date he had experienced. He learned to introduce the equally uncertain question of whether it might be the best.
→ The negative forecast loses its status as the only imaginable outcome.
Common mistakes
Using unbelievable affirmations
A statement you know to be false does not create credible evidence and may leave the original prediction untouched.
Confusing possibility with control
A more optimistic expectation does not guarantee an external result or remove uncertainty.
Discarding negative evidence
Turning the dial toward optimism should not erase warning signs, preparation gaps, or practical risks.
Is it for you?
Best for
People approaching uncertain performances, conversations, or first attempts with an automatic prediction of failure.
Not ideal for
Decisions where optimism would replace due diligence, risk controls, clinical care, or expert advice.
From the transcript
“anxiety is predicting failure and confidence is predicting success”
“what if this is the best date i'll ever go on”
From the episode
James Smith: Become Confident In 100 Minutes