Free-Will Investigation
Investigate the forces behind a choice before calling it free will
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 96%
Harari proposes beginning self-examination without assuming that every decision came from an independent, mystical free will. Choose a consequential decision and investigate the external influences around it, such as cultural traditions, political messaging, incentives, and social expectations. Then examine internal influences, including habits, emotions, learned responses, and biological mechanisms where evidence is available. Only after that inquiry should any unexplained remainder be discussed as free will. The mechanism is epistemic: starting with certainty closes the investigation, while suspending certainty creates reasons to learn how choices are formed. Harari connects this self-knowledge to manipulation risk, arguing that people who presume they cannot be influenced may be easier targets. His account is a philosophical position, not a quantified neuroscientific finding.
Origin
Harari presents this as his position in a discussion about free will, prediction, and manipulation. Extracted from The Diary of a CEO.
Core principles
- 01Assuming free will can end inquiry before it begins
- 02Choices can reflect cultural and biological influences
- 03Self-knowledge reduces false confidence about independence
- 04Unexplained influence should be a conclusion rather than a premise
How to run it
- 1
Choose one decision
Select a specific vote, purchase, relationship choice, or repeated behaviour rather than debating free will only in the abstract.
- 2
Suspend the conclusion
Do not begin by declaring the choice either wholly free or wholly determined.
Pro tip Treat free will as a question to investigate, not an answer that ends inquiry.
- 3
Trace external forces
List the cultural traditions, social pressures, messages, incentives, and institutional systems that shaped the available options.
Watch out Influence does not by itself prove total control.
- 4
Trace internal forces
Examine relevant emotions, habits, memories, bodily states, and known biological mechanisms without inventing causal certainty.
Pro tip Use therapy, meditation, or evidence-based inquiry where appropriate.
Watch out Do not turn speculative biological explanations into diagnoses.
- 5
Identify the remainder
State what the investigation explains and what remains genuinely unresolved.
- 6
Reduce future vulnerability
Change the environment, information sources, or decision process where the audit exposes a repeatable manipulation route.
In the wild
A voter examines why one candidate felt compelling. Instead of stopping at “my free choice,” the voter reviews family traditions, repeated media messages, peer influence, fear, and policy evidence, then records which factors genuinely changed the decision.
→ The next vote is made with a clearer account of the forces competing for attention.
Common mistakes
Starting with an untouchable answer
Declaring every choice an expression of free will removes the incentive to investigate its causes.
Replacing one certainty with another
Finding influences does not justify claiming that every detail of a decision has been fully explained.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for reflective examination of recurring choices and susceptibility to persuasion or algorithmic influence.
Not ideal for
It is not a scientific test that can calculate a precise percentage of free will or replace qualified psychological care.
From the transcript
“you cannot start with the assumption that humans have free will”
“start investigating and you'll probably discover that there are a lot of factors”
From the episode
Yuval Noah Harari: The Urgent Warning They Hope You Ignore, “More War Is Coming”, Yuval’s Chilling Future Predictions!