Great Opportunity Filter
Test future fit, recurrence, and time value before saying yes.
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 98%
The Great Opportunity Filter combines three checks. First, define who you want to become and ask whether accepting the offer moves you closer or farther away after accounting for its time cost. Second, ask whether the same opportunity—or a better one—is likely to return if you remain loyal to that direction and become more capable. Third, assign an intentionally demanding internal value to an hour of your time, then compare the offer with the value that time could create elsewhere. Bartlett uses £10,000 as his personal figure based on his interpretation of past business creation, but explicitly says others should choose their own number. The mechanism is opportunity-cost visibility: future fit, recurrence, and time value make the hidden price of an attractive yes easier to see.
Origin
Bartlett describes receiving many offers after leaving Social Chain while still having only 24 hours each day. He shares the three checks he uses to protect time for opportunities aligned with his long-term direction.
Core principles
- 01Accepting one opportunity spends time that cannot serve another.
- 02A clear future identity gives today's offers a direction test.
- 03Many good opportunities can return after capability and reputation grow.
- 04A high internal value for time raises the threshold for commitments.
- 05Turning down good work protects capacity for great work.
How to run it
- 1
Define the future self
Describe the person, capabilities, and work you want your current choices to build toward. Make the direction specific enough to judge a real offer.
Pro tip Use long-term values as well as titles or financial outcomes.
Watch out A vague future identity can be made to justify almost any opportunity.
- 2
Calculate directional cost
Estimate the full hours, attention, and displacement created by the offer. Decide whether that cost moves you closer to or farther from the future you described.
Pro tip Include preparation, recovery, and switching costs, not only scheduled hours.
Watch out Evaluating benefits without displaced work hides the main trade-off.
- 3
Test recurrence
Ask whether this opportunity would return, perhaps in greater value, after you become the person you are trying to become. Treat a likely return as evidence against urgency.
Pro tip Separate genuinely scarce windows from offers that merely arrive with a deadline.
Watch out The opportunity's return is an estimate, not a guarantee.
- 4
Set an hourly threshold
Choose an internal hourly value that reflects what focused time could plausibly create in your circumstances. Use it as a filter rather than a claim about what someone must pay you.
Pro tip Bartlett recommends choosing your own figure rather than copying his £10,000 example.
Watch out An aspirational number is not evidence that every hour will produce that amount.
- 5
Make the combined decision
Accept only when the offer fits the future direction, is sufficiently scarce or timely, and clears the opportunity-cost threshold. Otherwise decline to preserve capacity.
Pro tip Record the reason for a no so repeated offers become easier to assess consistently.
Watch out Do not use a high time value to dismiss necessary responsibilities or reliable income needs.
In the wild
After leaving Social Chain, Bartlett says his inbox contained offers to become a director or chief executive and to receive shares for helping companies. He compares each offer with the future person he wants to become, asks whether it would return later, and values the hours it would consume.
→ The checks help him say no to good opportunities so he can retain time for work he considers greater.
Common mistakes
Evaluating the offer in isolation
An attractive offer can still be a poor decision when the displaced work is more aligned or valuable.
Treating a deadline as scarcity
A fast response request does not prove the underlying opportunity will never return.
Copying someone else's hourly value
Bartlett's figure comes from his own interpretation of past business value and is not a universal benchmark.
Is it for you?
Best for
Operators with more credible offers than they can pursue and a reasonably clear long-term direction.
Not ideal for
People whose immediate financial needs make speculative future value less relevant than dependable near-term income.
From the transcript
“is doing this opportunity going to move me closer or further away”
“will this opportunity come back around”
“i attribute a financial value to an hour of my time”
From the episode
Why We're Getting More Depressed, Anxious and Lonely