Marketplace Demand Matrix
Compare offer variants with matched listings before building inventory
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 99%
Build a small matrix of concept listings to compare demand before committing to a product. Create distinct but honest images for each form factor, then hold the local market, radius, core benefit, and timing constant. Record the platform's observable metrics—such as views, clicks, and messages—in a spreadsheet. Add further tests for images, headlines, descriptions, flavours, and price points, changing variables deliberately. A small paid boost can show whether additional reach changes the response. At the same time, search relevant groups for customer language and existing preferences. The result is directional evidence, not a statistically final answer. Use it to decide which sample to source for direct user testing rather than treating a few clicks as permission to manufacture at scale.
Origin
Extracted from The Diary of a CEO
Core principles
- 01A rough behavioural signal beats prolonged speculation
- 02Matched conditions make variants comparable
- 03Multiple creatives reduce dependence on one listing
- 04Manufacturing should follow directional demand evidence
- 05Small paid boosts can test whether reach changes the result
How to run it
- 1
Define comparable variants
Choose the specific product forms or offers whose demand you need to compare.
Pro tip Keep the promised outcome consistent across variants.
Watch out Do not make unsupported health or performance claims.
- 2
Create truthful concepts
Produce clear concept visuals and copy that identify the offer without implying unavailable stock is ready to ship.
Pro tip Use the same visual quality across variants.
Watch out Check marketplace rules before posting.
- 3
Hold conditions constant
Use the same geography, radius, timing, and core description so the changed variable remains interpretable.
Watch out Different audiences or posting windows can overwhelm the variant effect.
- 4
Log behavioural metrics
Track views, clicks, and messages for every listing in one sheet.
Pro tip Record the exact creative and price beside each result.
Watch out A message is not the same as a purchase.
- 5
Expand and boost cautiously
Test more creatives and price points, then use small equal boosts to compare paid reach.
Pro tip Change one main variable at a time.
Watch out Tiny samples are directional, not conclusive.
- 6
Move to physical validation
Source samples of the strongest variant and test them with target users in person.
Watch out Do not place a large production order from listing metrics alone.
In the wild
For Bartlett's hypothetical product, Koerner proposed matched Facebook Marketplace listings for gummies and powder, followed by variations in images, headings, descriptions, and prices. He would track views, clicks, and messages, then request samples of the strongest direction.
→ The test would provide a quick directional signal about form factor before physical product development.
Common mistakes
Changing every variable
Different markets, benefits, and visuals make it impossible to know what drove the result.
Overreading a tiny sample
A two-hour comparison is a relevant data point, not a final market forecast.
Manufacturing before sampling
Listing interest should select a prototype, not trigger full inventory.
Is it for you?
Best for
Early consumer-product concepts with multiple variants and access to a relevant marketplace audience.
Not ideal for
Regulated products or listings that would breach platform rules or mislead users about availability.
From the transcript
“Don't want to change any variables.”
“I'm going to know within two hours where there's more demand.”
“Not necessarily, but it's something. It's a relevant data point.”
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