Old Problem, New Problem Router
Copy expertise for old problems and experiment on genuinely new ones
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 96%
Classify a challenge before choosing how to solve it. Old problems—such as cash flow, routine hiring, legal structures, or established fulfilment economics—have been encountered repeatedly, so recent expert precedent is usually the fastest starting point. New problems created by changed technology, behaviour, or regulation may have no dependable blueprint, making controlled experimentation more appropriate. The mechanism is a routing rule: established conditions send the team toward copying, advisers, or experienced operators; genuinely changed conditions send it toward tests. Many business problems contain both types, so split them into components rather than labelling the entire project innovative. This keeps scarce experimentation capacity focused on unknowns while avoiding years spent relearning established lessons.
Origin
Extracted from The Diary of a CEO
Core principles
- 01Mature problems usually have tested solutions
- 02Novel problems lack reliable blueprints
- 03Experimentation belongs where precedent is weak
- 04Classification prevents wasteful reinvention
How to run it
- 1
State the underlying problem
Describe the operational problem without framing it as a preferred solution.
Pro tip Separate technology novelty from the unchanged human or financial problem beneath it.
Watch out A new tool does not automatically make the whole problem new.
- 2
Check for precedent
Look for organisations that solved materially similar conditions within a relevant recent period.
Pro tip Prefer examples exposed to comparable scale and constraints.
Watch out Old precedent can become invalid after a material market or regulatory change.
- 3
Route the response
Use expertise or a copied baseline for old components and experiments for new components.
Pro tip Write down which component follows which route.
Watch out Do not experiment with compliance or safety obligations that require qualified advice.
- 4
Review the classification
Update the route when evidence shows that assumptions or conditions have changed.
In the wild
Koerner treated fulfilment pricing as an opportunity to innovate, removing established storage and handling fees. The business later encountered the inventory and service risks those fees addressed.
→ He concluded that starting from the established model could have saved two years.
Later, Koerner described applying new AI tools to old small-business operations. The underlying sales and service needs are familiar, while the implementation capability is newly accessible.
→ He presented the gap as an opportunity for an AI implementation service.
Common mistakes
Calling every technology problem new
The interface may be new while the underlying hiring, sales, or cash-flow problem is established.
Using stale precedent blindly
A once-settled solution may no longer fit after material changes in conditions.
Is it for you?
Best for
Leaders deciding whether to seek expert precedent or design a fresh test.
Not ideal for
Problems whose old and new components have not yet been separated clearly.
From the transcript
“If it's an old problem, I look to an example of someone within the last decade that's solved it in an interesting way.”
“I should have spent all of my time experimenting on the new problems.”
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