Build a Reference Class of Analogies
Solve novel problems by collecting structurally similar stories from unrelated fields
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 92%
Epstein's method for novel problems, demonstrated live with the Duncker radiation problem: a tumour needs high-intensity radiation that would destroy healthy tissue, and most people can't solve it — until they hear a general splitting troops down spoke-like roads to converge on a fortress, and a fire chief circling buckets around a blaze. The answer is converging low-intensity rays. The research shows the number and quality of solutions to a novel problem is predicted by the number and breadth of analogies a group can generate, and that in turn is predicted by the breadth of experience of the people in it. A group with identical expertise is barely better than one brain.
Origin
Epstein runs the Duncker radiation problem on Bartlett mid-episode, then links it to the research on reference classes and group diversity that underpins Range's case for varied teams.
Core principles
- 01Breadth of experience in the group predicts breadth of analogies generated.
- 02Same-expertise groups are barely better than a single brain on novel problems.
- 03Don't take the first analogy that comes up — build a menu.
- 04The creative cliff illusion means your best ideas usually come later, not first.
How to run it
- 1
State the problem as a structure
Strip the problem to its structural shape so it can be matched against situations from other domains.
- 2
Generate many far-flung analogies
Sit down with people from different backgrounds and list as many structurally similar situations as you can from unrelated areas.
Pro tip In the studies, each additional story told made more people solve the original problem, even without knowing they were related.
Watch out Assemble people who are genuinely different; identical expertise collapses the analogy pool.
- 3
Sort for structural similarity
Look through the analogies for the ones that share the underlying structure rather than surface features.
- 4
Keep going past the first idea
Resist settling on the first analogy or first idea; keep generating and stay open after the initial flash.
Pro tip There's nothing wrong with sharing an early idea — just don't stop there when solving a real problem.
Watch out People believe creative ideas arrive quickly or not at all; in fact they tend to come later in the session.
In the wild
Given the tumour problem cold, most people fail. Told the fortress story and the fire-chief story first, far more arrive at converging multiple low-intensity rays on the focal point.
→ Solution rates rise with each additional structurally similar analogy supplied.
Bartlett, an audio engineer and a producer solved the table-banging noise problem by pooling ideas — including Bartlett's Dragon's Den-derived suggestion of gluing a mic to the guest's chest.
→ Overhead mics won, and the episode was recorded without a mic on the table — different experience bases producing a menu of options.
Common mistakes
Hiring only people who've done it before
Epstein's point isn't that you don't want those people — it's that you don't want only those people, because the analogy pool collapses.
Stopping at the first analogy
The first match is rarely the best structural fit, and the creative cliff illusion makes people quit before better ideas arrive.
Is it for you?
Best for
Teams facing genuinely novel problems with no established playbook.
Not ideal for
Routine execution problems where a known procedure already works.
From the transcript
“when you're facing a novel problem the number of solutions and the chance of coming up with a good solution are predicted by the number…”
“if you're facing a novel problem and you have only people with the same expertise it's not much better than having one brain”
“there's this thing called the creative Cliff illusion people think their most their best ideas and most creative ideas will come either quickly or not…”
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