The Secretary Problem's 37% Rule
Explore first, set a benchmark, then commit when someone exceeds it
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 96%
Ury adapts the secretary problem from optimal stopping theory to dating. In the classic version, a decision-maker observes the first 37 percent of candidates without selecting them, identifies the best of that sample, and then chooses the next candidate who exceeds that benchmark. Applied cautiously to dating, the model counters the maximizer's urge to keep trading up. The early period supplies information about what a strong match actually feels like; later choices are compared with that lived benchmark rather than an imaginary perfect person. Ury uses ages 18 to 40 only as an illustrative horizon, placing the 37 percent point around age 26.1. She also acknowledges that dating is not identical to hiring. The reusable value is the explore-then-commit logic, not a deterministic promise about whom to marry.
Origin
Ury credits the book Algorithms to Live By for introducing the secretary problem and applies its optimal-stopping logic to dating.
Core principles
- 01Choosing too early limits comparison
- 02Searching forever can discard strong options
- 03An exploration period can create a realistic benchmark
- 04A sufficiently good choice can beat a futile search for perfection
How to run it
- 1
Set a plausible horizon
Choose a bounded period or number of opportunities that represents the search. The horizon is an approximation, not a prediction of your future.
Pro tip Use a horizon broad enough to include meaningful experience.
Watch out Do not manufacture urgency around an arbitrary age.
- 2
Explore the first 37 percent
Use the opening portion to learn what strong and weak options look like. In the mathematical problem, these candidates are observed rather than selected.
Watch out Real relationships are not disposable experiments; apply the analogy with care.
- 3
Name the benchmark
Identify the strongest match from the exploration period and specify why that experience was better. Focus on relationship quality rather than a superficial shopping list.
Pro tip Describe how you functioned together, not only the person's attributes.
- 4
Compare later options
Continue until a later option clearly exceeds the benchmark on the qualities that matter. Avoid comparing each real person with an imaginary composite of several people.
Watch out Do not overlook safety, compatibility, or mutual choice merely because a benchmark is exceeded.
- 5
Commit to building
When a strong mutual match exceeds the benchmark, stop treating the relationship as another search result. Shift effort from finding perfection to building the relationship.
Pro tip Make the stopping decision explicit to yourself.
In the wild
Illustrative example: Priya reviews several years of dating and identifies the relationship in which she felt most respected, playful, and secure. A later partner exceeds that benchmark and chooses her back. Rather than continuing to browse for an imagined upgrade, she gives the relationship sustained attention.
→ The benchmark converts experience into a stopping rule instead of another reason to compare endlessly.
Common mistakes
Treating 37 percent as destiny
The mathematical result belongs to a simplified problem. Ury presents its dating use as a way to think, not a guarantee.
Benchmarking superficial traits
A composite checklist of looks, status, and family background recreates the maximizer problem rather than solving it.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for people with enough prior experience to form a meaningful benchmark but who keep searching for a perfect partner.
Not ideal for
It is not a guarantee of relationship success or a literal instruction to rank human beings by one score.
From the transcript
“you go through the first 37 people”
“The next time that you find someone who's better than that Benchmark person you hire them”
“relationships are about finding somebody great and building a great relationship”
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