The Ten-Year Dip Filter
Choose the craft you would continue without quick success
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 98%
Armstrong describes using an idea from Seth Godin's The Dip to decide which pursuit deserved his long-term commitment. He listed the activities occupying him, then asked which one he would still want to do ten years later even if it had not produced much success. Tech entrepreneurship was the only answer that survived. He stopped treating real estate and other interests as equal priorities, moved to Silicon Valley, and sought work inside a high-growth startup environment. The mechanism is not that persistence guarantees a billion-dollar outcome. It is that a long-horizon motivation test removes pursuits whose appeal depends on early rewards, while a better environment increases relevant learning and opportunity around the remaining choice.
Origin
Armstrong says The Dip gave him the question he needed while he was living in Buenos Aires and uncertain about his direction. He used it to choose tech entrepreneurship and concentrate his life around that choice.
Core principles
- 01Most worthwhile pursuits include a long period between beginner excitement and mastery
- 02A durable choice must survive the possibility of slow external rewards
- 03Removing weaker commitments concentrates time and opportunity around the strongest one
- 04Environment can increase exposure to relevant people, capital, and ideas
How to run it
- 1
Map the competing paths
Write down the serious pursuits receiving your time, money, or identity. Include side projects that quietly compete with the apparent priority.
Pro tip Use actual calendar time to expose commitments you may omit from memory.
- 2
Apply the ten-year test
For each path, imagine practising it for ten years without major status or financial success. Ask whether the work itself would still feel worth doing.
Pro tip Separate love of the activity from love of the imagined outcome.
Watch out This is a motivation test, not proof that a market or career will work.
- 3
Choose the survivor
Select the path with enough intrinsic pull to carry you through the likely middle period. If none survives, continue exploring rather than forcing certainty.
- 4
Remove rival commitments
Stop, pause, or sharply reduce pursuits that failed the test. Redirect the released attention toward the chosen craft.
Pro tip Make one visible calendar or budget change immediately.
Watch out Preserve essential income, care, and safety obligations.
- 5
Improve the environment
Place yourself where the chosen field has stronger talent, learning, funding, or opportunity. This can mean a job, community, or digital network rather than a move.
Pro tip Choose proximity to practitioners over proximity to prestige alone.
In the wild
Armstrong was running a tutoring business, doing contract development, exploring real estate, learning martial arts, and travelling. Tech entrepreneurship was the only pursuit he believed he would still want after ten years without much success, so he stopped the alternatives, moved to Silicon Valley, and joined a startup environment.
→ His attention and environment became aligned with the field he wanted to practise long term.
Common mistakes
Choosing the imagined prize
The test concerns willingness to continue the work without quick success, not attraction to wealth or recognition.
Treating persistence as validation
Long-term enthusiasm does not replace evidence about demand, ability, or practical constraints.
Is it for you?
Best for
People deciding which career, craft, or entrepreneurial path deserves sustained commitment.
Not ideal for
Irreversible choices that require financial, legal, health, or family considerations beyond personal enthusiasm.
From the transcript
“what's the thing that you would still want to be doing 10 years from now even if you hadn't seen a lot of success”
“the only thing i could like really write on my list was tech entrepreneurship”
From the episode
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