Three Signals of the Right Path
Check enjoyment, marginal gains, and early validation before continuing.
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 98%
Bartlett proposes three early signals for judging whether a pursuit is on the right path. First is enjoyment: difficult work is harder to sustain when the person repeatedly avoids it or dislikes showing up. Second is progress, measured as marginal improvement rather than immediate scale—whether the product, process, or content is getting better week over week. Third is validation of the underlying hypothesis: even if only ten people use the thing, do they enjoy it, return, give useful feedback, or invite another person? The three signals cover sustainability, execution quality, and external demand. They are not proof of eventual success, and Bartlett acknowledges that major outcomes may still depend on factors outside the founder's control. Their purpose is narrower: to detect encouraging direction before revenue or audience totals become informative.
Origin
Bartlett gives the scorecard in response to a listener asking for three signs that they are on the right path. He applies it to the early life of his own podcast, when immediate viewers, downloads, and revenue were not the primary evidence.
Core principles
- 01Enjoyment supports repeated effort through difficult work.
- 02Early progress can appear before large results.
- 03Marginal gains reveal direction when revenue and users are still small.
- 04A hypothesis needs behavioral or qualitative validation.
- 05Returning users and referrals can matter before audience scale.
How to run it
- 1
Check enjoyment
Ask whether you enjoy doing the actual work, especially while the project is still difficult and unrewarded. Notice chronic avoidance and procrastination as relevant evidence.
Pro tip Evaluate the recurring work, not only the imagined outcome or status.
Watch out Bartlett's numerical estimate about the odds without enjoyment is his opinion, not established probability.
- 2
Measure marginal gains
Look for concrete improvements in quality, capability, or execution from one week to the next rather than demanding immediate scale.
Pro tip Choose a visible before-and-after measure for each weekly improvement.
Watch out Do not convert Bartlett's 'one percent better' illustration into literal compound arithmetic or a guaranteed result.
- 3
State the hypothesis
Write the belief the project is testing, such as whether a particular audience values the format or product.
Pro tip A precise hypothesis makes weak early signals easier to interpret.
Watch out A vague goal allows any activity to look like validation.
- 4
Find external validation
Look for feedback, repeat use, return visits, or referrals that support the hypothesis. Small numbers can still provide directional evidence.
Pro tip Behavior such as returning or inviting someone often carries more weight than praise alone.
Watch out One encouraging comment does not establish product-market fit.
- 5
Decide from the combined signal
Continue when enjoyment, improvement, and validation are developing together; investigate or reconsider when one remains absent.
Pro tip Use a recurring review interval so the decision is based on a pattern rather than one day.
Watch out The scorecard indicates direction, not certainty of success.
In the wild
Bartlett says an early podcast may have only ten listeners rather than thousands. The useful questions are whether those people enjoy the format, come back the following week, and invite another person.
→ Return behavior and small referrals provide early validation before total downloads or revenue become substantial.
Common mistakes
Waiting only for headline results
Revenue and scale can lag behind real improvement, leaving an early project without a useful directional measure.
Mistaking activity for progress
More effort is not automatically a marginal gain; identify what became measurably better.
Calling weak feedback product-market fit
The framework looks for early evidence of a hypothesis, not a declaration that broad market demand has been proven.
Is it for you?
Best for
Founders and creators deciding whether an early project is moving in a promising direction before mature metrics exist.
Not ideal for
Projects with an immediate hard deadline or objective pass-fail result that already provides a stronger decision signal.
From the transcript
“are you enjoying it are you making marginal gains i.e progress and lastly has your hypothesis shown some evidence that it is correct”
“there's always some evidence even at the very very start of your business”
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