Trend-Expertise-Market Fit
Apply scarce expertise to a rising, underserved market with valuable buyers
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 94%
Trend-Expertise-Market Fit combines three opportunity filters discussed by Pal and Bartlett. First, develop a skill that people will pay for. Second, apply it to a secular trend that is big, meaningful and observable during its expansion phase. Third, select an underserved buyer group for whom solving the problem creates unusually high value. Bartlett illustrates how social-media expertise earned more when applied to companies approaching an IPO than to ordinary retail promotion because the client's outcome could vary by billions. Pal adds that niche or price-insensitive buyers can produce better economics than crowded mass markets, while warning that once a trend saturates, the easy opportunity fades. The result is not simply becoming an expert; it is matching expertise, timing and buyer economics.
Origin
Extracted from The Diary of a CEO
Core principles
- 01Expertise earns more when applied to a high-value problem
- 02Long-term trends create expanding demand
- 03Underserved buyers offer more room than saturated markets
- 04Buyer economics can matter as much as the underlying skill
- 05A market's hyper-growth phase does not last forever
How to run it
- 1
Inventory scarce expertise
Identify a capability you can perform credibly and that another person or business values.
Pro tip Define the outcome your skill changes, not merely the task you perform.
Watch out Being broadly informed is not the same as possessing paid expertise.
- 2
Find a secular trend
Look for a long-term shift that is big, meaningful and supported by visible adoption or behavior.
Pro tip Notice when a technology or behavior develops its own culture and mythology.
Watch out Conversation volume alone does not prove durable demand.
- 3
Locate unmet demand
Identify a defined group whose needs are not yet served well by existing providers.
Watch out A once-underserved market may already be saturated.
- 4
Compare buyer value
Estimate how much your work can change outcomes for each buyer group and how sensitive each is to price.
Pro tip Prefer a valuable result over a merely prestigious customer.
Watch out Ability to pay does not justify deceptive or low-value selling.
- 5
Apply and monitor
Position the expertise in the strongest intersection, then watch adoption, competition and customer results.
Watch out Do not assume a hyper-growth phase will continue indefinitely.
In the wild
Bartlett says his social-media expertise produced a much higher return when used to help public companies tell their story before an IPO. The same skill had more economic value there than when used to help a fashion company sell dresses because the client's potential valuation difference was far larger.
→ Market selection increased what an existing expertise could earn.
Pal cites Tom Bilyeu and his partners building Quest around rising demand for high-protein ketogenic snacks that still satisfied a sweet tooth. He presents the early market as trending and underserved, while noting that it later became saturated.
→ An early fit between trend, unmet demand and a valuable health category supported rapid growth.
Common mistakes
Stopping at become an expert
A valuable skill can still earn modest returns when applied to a crowded or low-value market.
Following a trend after saturation
A market can retain cultural attention after its easiest opportunity has disappeared.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for specialists deciding which customers, industry or business model to pursue.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when the proposed market is unproven, exploitative or inaccessible to the operator.
From the transcript
“Where are you applying your skills to reap the highest return?”
“You look for a trend that's big, meaningful, and proveable.”
From the episode
The Investing & Crypto Expert: "We Only Have 6 Years Until Everything Changes!", "The S&P 500 Isn't Worth Your Time!", "Don't Keep Spare Cash In A Bank!"