Written Counterargument Stress Test
Write the strongest opposing case and compare it beside your preferred one
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 96%
Johnson describes writing both a case for leaving the European Union and a separate counterargument for remaining. He says the second article was an exercise written so he could place the two cases side by side and think through them. The transferable method turns internal ambivalence into two explicit documents. Each document should present its own strongest rationale, acknowledge practical consequences, and avoid weakening the other side for convenience. The decision-maker then compares evidence, values, reversibility, and unresolved costs before choosing. The exercise does not guarantee a correct conclusion, and it does not replace implementation planning. Its value is narrower: it exposes tensions that can disappear once a campaign or organisation begins speaking with a single, simplified voice.
Origin
Extracted from The Diary of a CEO. Boris Johnson says he wrote a pro-remain counterargument after drafting his case for leave, then set the two pieces beside each other before deciding.
Core principles
- 01A consequential choice can contain legitimate arguments on both sides
- 02Writing forces vague reservations into inspectable claims
- 03The opposing case should be strong enough to challenge the preferred case
- 04A decision should survive direct comparison rather than rhetorical certainty
How to run it
- 1
State the Preferred Case
Write the strongest positive case for the option you currently favour. Include the mechanism by which it is expected to produce its benefits.
Watch out Do not confuse an appealing slogan with an implementation path.
- 2
Write the Opposing Case
Construct the most credible case for the alternative in its own voice. Include benefits you would genuinely regret losing.
Pro tip Use arguments that a serious advocate of the alternative would recognise.
Watch out A deliberately weak counterargument makes the exercise performative.
- 3
Expose Both Tradeoffs
List costs, risks, dependencies, and second-order effects for each option. Separate measured evidence from forecasts and value judgements.
- 4
Compare Side by Side
Review the documents together rather than sequentially. Mark where the cases disagree about facts, probabilities, responsibilities, or priorities.
Pro tip Ask a sceptical reviewer to identify omissions in both documents.
- 5
Decide Without Erasing Costs
Choose the case that remains stronger after comparison and record why. Preserve the losing case's valid warnings as implementation risks.
Pro tip Turn unresolved objections into explicit monitoring or contingency items.
Watch out Winning the argument does not remove the need for an execution plan.
In the wild
The host reads passages from Johnson's unpublished pro-remain article covering European partnership, Scotland, Russia, market access, and Britain's role in Europe. Johnson says he wrote it as a counterargument to his leave case and compared the two before choosing leave.
→ The exercise made competing considerations explicit, although the later discussion shows that implementation planning remained a separate and contested issue.
Common mistakes
Building a Straw Opponent
The test fails when the alternative is written to lose rather than to reveal a genuine challenge.
Comparing Values as if They Were Facts
Evidence disputes and priority disputes require different kinds of resolution.
Stopping Before Implementation
Choosing a direction does not answer who will execute it, how, or against which contingencies.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for high-stakes choices with credible alternatives, uncertain forecasts, and meaningful tradeoffs.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when immediate safety action is required or when one option is illegal, deceptive, or otherwise outside legitimate consideration.
From the transcript
“there are arguments both ways”
“I wanted to set them side by side”
From the episode
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