The 80% Solution Now
Choose a good-enough direction now and learn by moving
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 95%
The 80% Solution Now is a speed-over-certainty decision rule MrBallen says is used in the military and can often help people who feel stuck. Start by acknowledging the situation, then identify the few outcomes or motives that truly matter. Instead of searching for a perfect life plan, select a direction that satisfies enough of those criteria to be worth testing. Act while the decision remains reversible, observe what happens, and let success or failure inform the next step. The mechanism is a feedback loop: movement produces evidence, evidence reduces uncertainty, and the next decision becomes better grounded. The rule is not universal permission to rush; it is a way to escape paralysis when delay itself is the main cost.
Origin
Extracted from The Diary of a CEO
Core principles
- 01Movement creates information that reflection alone cannot provide.
- 02A direction only needs to satisfy enough important criteria to justify a test.
- 03A failed attempt can still produce useful feedback.
- 04Waiting for certainty can reinforce helplessness.
How to run it
- 1
Own the starting point
Describe what is not working and your contribution to it without waiting for a perfect diagnosis.
Pro tip Focus first on what you can change rather than assigning complete blame.
Watch out Responsibility does not mean claiming fault for circumstances outside your control.
- 2
Find the essential boxes
Identify the small number of outcomes or motives an option must satisfy to be worth trying.
Pro tip Use your unfiltered private thoughts to separate genuine motives from social expectations.
- 3
Choose a good-enough direction
Select an option that meets enough essential criteria, even if it is not demonstrably perfect.
Pro tip Prefer a reversible test that can generate evidence quickly.
Watch out Do not apply speed-over-certainty to choices with severe or irreversible downside.
- 4
Move and update
Take a concrete action, read the feedback, and use what you learn to continue, adjust, or stop.
Pro tip Treat an informative failure as progress rather than proof that you cannot change.
In the wild
After leaving university with a 1.016 GPA and returning to his mother's basement, MrBallen stopped searching for a complete life plan. He chose one clear direction: attend a local school, earn good grades, and graduate. That bounded goal restored momentum and later gave him evidence that he could pursue a harder objective, becoming a Navy SEAL.
→ A good-enough first direction created momentum and opened the next goal.
With earlier content ideas exhausted, MrBallen recorded a short mystery story for TikTok while his family went to a water park. He did not know whether the platform or format would work, but the low-cost test gave him immediate audience feedback and a direction for further storytelling.
→ The test revealed strong demand for his strange, dark, and mysterious stories.
Common mistakes
Waiting for the perfect direction
Demanding certainty before acting prevents the feedback that could make the choice clearer.
Checking everyone else's boxes
A socially approved option may not provide enough personal motivation to sustain action.
Using speed where caution is required
The rule should not replace proper diligence for dangerous, irreversible, or high-stakes decisions.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for reversible choices where action will quickly reveal useful information.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for irreversible, dangerous, or high-stakes decisions that require fuller diligence.
From the transcript
“an 80% solution now is oftentimes better than a 100% solution tomorrow”
“you just got to start moving”
“failure is feedback feedback is knowledge knowledge is power”
From the episode
MrBallen (Former Navy SEAL): I Wasn't Sleeping, I Became A Raging Alcoholic! I Was Disowned By The SEALS! This Will Turn Your Life Around In 2025!